Wikileaks & Eleições 2010 - 1

246840 2/2/2010 19:13 10RIODEJANEIRO32 Consulate Rio De Janeiro UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

UNCLAS RIO DE JANEIRO 000032 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV, PREL, BR SUBJECT: VIEWS ON POSSIBLE VP CANDIDATES FOR JOSE SERRA REF: 09 BRASILIA 1486 SUMMARY 1. (SBU) Political observers and party actors across the country contend there is a possibility of the Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB) presumed presidential candidate and frontrunner Jose Serra asking Green Party (PV) candidate Marina da Silva to be his vice presidential candidate. While it seems unlikely at this point that Silva would accept such a role, most believe she would at least support Serra in a second round runoff with Worker Party (PT) candidate Dilma Rousseff. The Marina possibility notwithstanding, political insiders see as the most likely scenario that Minas Gerais governor Aecio Neves (PSDB) will eventually join Serra as his VP candidate, in spite of Neves' public statements he will run for Senate. Although the narrowing gap between Serra and Dilma Rousseff in the latest polls has renewed speculation that Serra might bow out in favor of Neves as the PSDB candidate, Serra remains the most likely candidate, and many of our interlocutors state a Serra-Neves ticket would be the surest way for Serra to successfully challenge President Lula's efforts to translate his own popularity into votes for Dilma Rousseff as his successor. End Summary. RIO OBSERVERS DISCUSS VP OPTIONS 2. (SBU) During a private January 12 lunch, prominent Veja magazine political columnist Diogo Mainardi told Rio Principal Officer that Mainardi's recent column proposing Green Party (PV) presidential candidate and former Lula environment minister Marina Silva as the ideal vice presidential candidate on Jose Serra's (PSDB) ticket was based on a long conversation between Serra and Mainardi, in which Serra said Marina Silva would be his "dream running mate." Serra outlined in that conversation with Mainardi the same advantages that Mainardi later listed in his column: Marina's life story and impeccable leftist credentials would trump Lula's personal appeal to poor Brazilians and place Dilma Rouseff (PT) at a disadvantage with the left, while helping Serra mitigate the association with the government of Fernando Henrique Cardoso which Lula/Dilma hope to use as a point of attack in the campaign. That said, Mainardi does not expect Marina to sign on with Serra, as she wants to establish her own credibility by running for president. However, Mainardi said he thinks - as does Serra - that Marina might well support Serra in a second round runoff with Dilma. 3. (SBU) On a more realistic level, Mainardi indicated to PO that Minas Gerais Governor Aecio Neves told Mainardi earlier this month that Neves remains "completely open" to the possibility of running as vice presidential candidate with Serra. (Note: On December 17, 2009 Neves officially terminated his "pre-candidacy" for the Presidency and indicated he had no interest in running for vice president - reported reftel. End Note). Despite Neves' public statements that he will run for Senate, Mainardi said Neves plans to wait for a scenario in which PSDB, perhaps by March, asks Neves to join the ticket, to assure the strongest possible chance against Dilma. Neves' own ambitions and his inextricably linked desire not to be a spoiler for the PSDB in the coming race would lead Neves to join the ticket, in Mainardi's opinion. This was echoed by Merval Pereira, columnist for Rio's newspaper of record "O Globo," who recounted to PO on January 21 a conversation Pereira had with Neves the day before, in which Neves said he was "firmly committed" to helping Serra in any way, including joining the ticket. A Serra-Neves ticket, opined Pereira, would win, and Pereira personally believed that not only would Neves run with Serra, but that Marina Silva would also support Serra in a runoff. 4. (SBU) Rio Federal Deputy Marcelo Itagiba (PSDB), who is closely involved with the Serra campaign, told Rio Poloff that Marina was his clear preference as Serra's VP. He cited the practical benefits to the Serra campaign, most notably the increase in television airtime he would gain by tapping into Marina's share (Comment: Given that party campaign airtime is based on legislative seats won in 2006 and the PV's minimal showing in that election, increased airtime for a Serra-Marina ticket would be negligible. End Comment). At the same time, Itagiba shared Mainardi's assessment of Neves, stating Neves would likely join the Serra ticket, if a Serra first round victory does not appear assured. "If this is the will of the party, Neves will accept," he said. 5. (SBU) While Rio Deputy Otavio Leite (PSDB), minority leader in the House of Deputies (Camara), told Poloff he did not believe Marina would accept any VP offer from Serra, he stated, the PSDB was counting on her support in a second round. On Neves, Leite offered a dissenting view from the other Rio interlocutors, saying Neves' election to the Senate was a foregone conclusion and would be a much more attractive option than VP, considering Neves' presidential ambitions, especially if the Senate term carried with it the Senate presidency, as many believe it will. Leite assessed that a mixed ticket with allied opposition party DEM would be a real possibility, naming Senator Jose Agripino from Rio Grande do Norte as a leading contender. Rio Federal Deputy Rodrigo Maia, president of the DEM party, also confirmed to Poloff that Agripino's name was on a shortlist of Serra VP candidates and discounted Marina's willingness to join a Serra ticket or even support him in a second round. "She will go back to Lula in the end," Maia said. "We cannot count on her." (Comment: Maia's opinion of Marina Silva reflects a significant difference between long-time allies PSDB and DEM. PSDB members are by and large comfortable with Marina while DEM, which has an agrarian base, sees her as philosophically incompatible and a potential threat to their economic interests. End Comment). VIEWS FROM SAO PAULO 6. (SBU) Sao Paulo Federal Deputy (PSDB) and City Secretary for Sports Walter Feldman told Sao Paulo Econoff that a unified PSDB presidential ticket with Neves would strengthen Serra's chances in the October elections. Describing Serra and Neves as Brazil's two best governors, Feldman expressed confidence that their combined record of administrative achievement in elected office would resonate with voters underwhelmed by Dilma Rousseff's performance at Minister in President Lula's cabinet. In subsequent discussions with PSDB Sao Paulo State PSDB President and Federal Deputy Antonio Carlos Mendes Thame and Sao Paulo Municipal Secretary of Government and local PSDB insider Clovis Carvalho, both told Econoff that Neves was choice of the party leaders for the VP slot and they were confident he would answer the call. Both emphasized that PSDB must deliver Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo states to win the presidency and that the best way to do that was to bring Neves onto the Serra ticket. Separately, Bolivar Lamounier, co-founder of the Sao Paulo Institute for Economic and Political Studies (IDESP), and Ricardo Sennes, Director of international affairs consulting firm Prospectiva Consultoria Brasileira told Econoff they expected Marina to carry through with her own campaign but throw her support behind Serra in a second round after having "burned bridges" with her exit from the PT. PSDB OUTLOOK IN BRASILIA 7. (SBU) Other PSDB players discount the likelihood of a mixed ticket. While acknowledging that Serra strongly prefers a coalition ticket and that Neves wants to run for senate, Senators Eduardo Azeredo (Minas Gerais) and Alvaro Dias (Parana) told Brasilia Poloff that the party faithful want a pure PSDB ticket, and claimed such an outcome was likely. Pernambuco Federal Deputy and PSDB vice leader in the House of Deputies Bruno Araujo also downplayed the possibility of Serra tapping a DEM representative, implying the DEM's diminishing popularity left Serra with little to gain from such a ticket, even in the northeast, where the DEM party has the most seats. In conversations with Poloff this week, two senior PSDB staff members acknowledged Serra' interest in Marina as a VP candidate, and described her as the latest big idea among a large minority within the party, especially in Rio and Sao Paulo. Neither believed Marina would ever accept such an offer but both were optimistic about gaining her support in the second round. RECIFE: THE NORTHEASTERN PERSPECTIVE 8. (SBU) Recife political analyst Andre Regis (also a lawyer, Federal University of Pernambuco professor and active PSDB member) told post recently that PSDB believes a Serra-Aecio ticket would do well in the Northeast. While he acknowledged that Dilma's poll numbers have gradually improved in the region, Serra still has some advantages over her with voters enthralled by President Lula's charisma and history. Admitting that Serra also suffers from an image as more of a technocrat than a politician, he asserted that Aecio would help shore up the opposition ticket if he accepted the nomination for vice president. 9. (SBU) Pernambuco PV president Sergio Xavier confided to post last week that, in his opinion, Marina Silva will maintain her own candidacy, but is certain to support Serra in a second round. He added that PSDB, being very weak in Rio, needs an alliance with PV there to benefit from a Fernando Gabeira candidacy for governor (Note: On January 26, the PSDB and PV announced Marcelo Fortes, PSDB's VP in Rio, would be Gabeira's running mate for governor of Rio state. End Note). Regarding possible DEM running mate Agripino, contacts in Natal told PO this month that he may not even win re-election to the Senate, due to his old-style image and lack of charisma. Serra would not get the needed boost in the Northeast if he were to tap Agripino, who was once implicated in a vote-buying scandal in Rio Grande do Norte. COMMENT 10. (SBU) With Dilma's recent ascent in the polls, Lula's unwavering popularity, and significant ground to yet cover between now and the PSDB's Convention in June, the factors that determine Serra's choice for VP candidate are still too fluid even for Serra himself to know who the best candidate will be. With the latest polls showing a single-digit margin between Serra and Dilma, speculation has even surfaced again that Serra might bow out in favor Neves as the PSDB candidate if he thinks the race too close at the end of March. Nonetheless, Serra is still the most likely candidate and his hunt for the strongest VP candidate continues. Given the long shot prospect of a Serra-Marina ticket and the politically inexpedient possibility of a PSDB-DEM coalition, current indicators point to a pure PSDB ticket. Neves' ambition, star power, and loyalty to the party make a Serra-Neves ticket a real possibility, in spite of Neves' public comments to the contrary. Neves' popularity in the Northeast (Lula's power base) and the votes Neves would bring Serra in Minas Gerais, the country's second largest voter state, would constitute a very powerful challenge to Lula's efforts to crown Dilma as his successor. End Comment. 11. (U) This cable was coordinated with and cleared by Embassy Brasilia and Consulates Sao Paulo and Recife. HEARNE